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Home > Our Products > Technical & Safety Info > For the Record - Science > Climate Change Challenges

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Climate Change Challenges

Why New Ag Technologies Are Needed Now

There is no question that global warming is now underway.  In its May 2008 report entitled, The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, the U.S. Climate Change Science Panel reported that, “numerous, substantial impacts of climate change on U.S. natural resources are already occurring … these are likely to become exacerbated as warming progresses.” The report goes on to highlight the very significant challenges to agriculture:

• With increased CO2 and temperature, the life cycle of grain and oilseed crops will likely progress more rapidly. But, as temperature rises, these crops will increasingly begin to experience failure.
• The marketable yield of many horticultural crops – e.g., tomatoes, onions, fruits – is very likely to be more sensitive to climate change than grain and oilseed crops.
• Climate change is likely to lead to a northern migration of weeds and many insect pests. Many weeds respond more positively to increasing CO2 than most cash crops, particularly C3 “invasive” weeds.
• Disease pressure on crops and domestic animals will likely increase, as a result of earlier springs and warmer winters.

New technologies are needed now to confront these challenges.  Significant progress is already being made through the application of modern crop breeding techniques, biotechnology, and innovative partnerships – both within industry and between industry and other stakeholders – academia, government researchers, and NGO’s.  However, artificial barriers are still preventing the widespread adoption of the very technologies that could help meet the challenges already presented by climate change.  This brief summary is intended to define the key terms, present the facts about global warming, and highlight the needs that new ag technologies can meet now.

What are “Greenhouse Gases”?

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are transparent to incoming solar radiation but absorb the infrared radiation given off by Earth back to space.  Water is the most important GHG, being responsible for roughly 90% of the total “greenhouse effect” of 60°F (i.e. the global mean temperature would be about 0°F without any the greenhouse effect).  Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the next most important (4-8%), followed by methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O).  Agriculture is a relatively important global source of both CH4 (livestock) and N2O (fertilizers).

Is the Earth Getting Warmer?

Yes, all direct and indirect observations (glaciers, migration dates, melting arctic ice cap, etc.) confirm that surface temperatures are rising.  Land surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are accelerating, and are currently rising at 0.9°F per decade.

Are People Causing Global Warming?

Many human activities have some potential impact on climate: deforestation, irrigation, air pollution, and fossil fuel consumption are all examples.  Evidence is mounting that the net effect of man-made GHG emissions have become dominant over the past 40 years, leading to the accelerating warming trend that is now evident.  The direct warming effect of man-made GHG’s already corresponds to a 2% increase in absorbed solar radiation.  That’s like moving the earth a million miles closer to the sun.  And the concentrations of those gases are still increasing.

What is the Climate Forecast?

Regardless of what is done to slow the rate of GHG-emissions, temperatures will continue to climb –faster in the higher latitudes.  Precipitation forecasts are less certain, but expect currently dry areas to expand and expect more precipitation at higher latitudes.  Heat and moisture stress (both drought and excessive water) will become more frequent.

What Will this Mean for Agriculture?

Increasing CO2 and temperature will continue to have some short term benefits, but in the long run crop yields and livestock productivity will suffer, due to the an increasing frequency of stress-related losses.  Insects, weeds, and disease are all likely to spread northward through the US, increasing the challenge.  Of course, demand for agriculture outputs is already at unprecedented levels, and this is unlikely to modify in the foreseeable future due to world population growth, changing food preferences, and the demand for renewable fuels.

How Can New Agriculture Technology Help Address the Needs?

Society will increasingly demand not only greater quantities of agriculture products, including food, feed and fuel, but it will demand that agricultural production systems are able to demonstrate an overall profile that is sustainable.  Food security, environment, public health, and socio-economic factors will remain key priorities.  There are several ways in which new ag technologies will do this:

• Modern crop breeding techniques help keep pace with climate change and drive higher yield, which reduces land requirements for agriculture, potentially making more land available for conservation.
• Ag biotechnology provides the means to produce crop protection systems by solar energy, avoiding the fossil fuel consumption associated with the production and application of conventional pesticides.
• Ag biotechnology can reduce the need for tillage, provides increased yields, and decreases the chance of yield loss as a result of weather-related stress.
• Several climate-related stress tolerant traits, such as drought tolerance, are now in development, which further help protect and advance yield gains.
• Nitrogen use efficiency is also a key trait that has the potential to significantly reduce the GHG-emissions and other undesirable environmental effects of fertilizer use.

The efficiency gains in agricultural systems that result from the application of new agriculture technologies will lead to more production on less land, and collectively reduce the amount of resources needed per unit of production.